Transitions-Automation and the Future of Jobs in Kern County

Written by Gordon F. Lull

Warning: robots ahead. Exercise caution.

And, just in case, polish up that resume.

Once only futuristic elements of popular culture, robotics and cutting edge automation are now welcomed realities in the American economy. For employers, that is. But what will be their effect upon jobs? Some fear workers will be sacrificed on the altar of efficiency, replaced with quieter, subservient, more diligent units which don’t start unions, clock in late, file workers’ comp claims, or take vacations.

“…we are about to see a seismic shift in our American workforce,” predicts writer/entrepreneur Marshall Brain in his seminal essay, “Robotic Nation.”

“As a nation, we have no way to understand or handle the level of unemployment that we will see…over the next several decades.”

In a recent interview, forecaster Harry S. Dent Jr. similarly predicted that the unemployment rate could soon rise to 25 percent. And a recent Los Angeles Times article reported on Buttonwillow, California farmer Mike Young’s transition from crops demanding human labor to the more profitable almond trees which can be harvested by robot forklifts.

There’s another reason for abandoning row crops: Employees are a headache. Automation means Young no longer needs large crews of farmworkers to plant or harvest—and no more worrying about status, pay, or benefits. [December 17, 2010, Alana Semuels, “Automation is increasingly reducing U.S. workforces,” Los Angeles Times]

The signs of automation gobbling up job opportunities are ubiquitous. Self-service kiosks have popped up at McDonald’s and Jack-in-the-Box; shoppers avoid long lines and master personal checkout stations at groceries and “Big box” stores such as Home Depot; virtual office operations can serve multiple businesses and scale down their clients’ need for on-site workers; robots now load and unload product pallets with scientific precision at warehouse distribution centers. The result? Increased efficiency, lower employment costs, and, in many cases, consumer satisfaction.

The wonders in this brave new world of automation hurtle us onward toward Star Trek and Tomorrowland at warp speed.

Consider this…

Anyone driving Highway 1 between Los Angeles and San Francisco recently may well have passed a Toyota Prius with a strange triangular contraption on the roof. The vehicle carried no human driver. Sophisticated intelligence software, sensing objects in the Prius’ path and replicating driver decisions, guided the car, without mishap, during its 800-mile round trip.

Ms. HRP, the so-called “Diva Bot,” is one of the newest YouTube sensations. The Japanese “fembot” imitates human singing, performing without backstage flare-ups or wardrobe malfunctions. Scientists installed breath analysis and mouth/jaw-movement software in fashioning the robot.

“Earl,” short for Enhanced Automated Robotic Launcher, may not sing but he sure can bowl. The one-armed mechanical robot imitates with startling exaction the same precise “shot” every single time. [Note: Nevertheless, in a June 2010 match-up, professional bowler Chris Barnes defeated Earl, thereby providing a bit of temporary “job security” for human bowlers everywhere.]

Recently, a robot surgeon named “Da Vinci,” and his fellow robot, anesthesiologist “McSleepy,” teamed up at Montreal General Hospital for the world’s first all-robotic surgery. Putting aside professional jealousy, the two collaborated on a prostatectomy. The patient survived and is thriving.

Kern County, with no built-in immunity to trends in the national economy, has sustained predictable erosion in job opportunities across the employment spectrum. Add to this the Central Valley’s politically-induced crises in water and agriculture, and what some see as a Damoclean sword hanging over public benefits systems throughout California. The picture can seem grim.

Increased efficiency and cost savings can also mean fewer grocery employees, fewer warehouse workers, smaller staffs at fast food restaurants, and, in general, dwindling numbers of job opportunities for students, low-wage workers looking for advancement, and a growing army of the unemployed. What’s up with these robots, anyway? Are the fruits of our technological genius planting land mines in our economy?

Not so, according to several surveyors of the economic landscape in Kern County. They are quietly working on the front lines to reap opportunities from the turbulent present. For them—we have in mind people like businessman, consultant and developer Barry Hibbard, and economic development professionals Richard Chapman and Melinda Brown, both of Kern Economic Development Corporation—all dreary prophecies aside, positive features embedded into Kern County’s land and people may well have positioned it for a bright economic future if, that is, some critical opportunities are seized.

Automation Primer

Every regional economy has its diamond in the rough. According to some, logistics, distribution, and sophisticated automation technologies offer bright hope. Few are in a better position to judge this than developer and consultant Barry Hibbard. Hibbard owns Central Valley Investments and is the former vice president of commercial development for Tejon Ranch. He managed the marketing, development, sale, and leasing of the 1,450-acre Tejon Industrial Complex.

“We are positioned to be a critical intersection between a growing supply chain and industrial storage and distribution,” Hibbard told us, “and that’s why we have been successful in attracting some world-class manufacturing and distribution facilities, such as IKEA, Famous Footwear, and some of these other really sophisticated operations.”

He ought to know. Hibbard was responsible for leading a team that successfully developed hundreds of acres for commercial and retail activity near Tejon, and attracted a number of high-tech distribution facilities. This, he believes, is part of the key to providing future jobs in Kern County.

“I’ve thought a lot about this,” he said, “and I’m convinced that Kern County is in a great position to attract and keep these kinds of operations.”

By “these kinds of operations,” Hibbard means the kinds of distribution centers which have embraced innovative automation. He cites Famous Footwear, Target, Frito-Lay, Carquest, Dreyer’s, and IKEA.

The traditional warehouse model involved product arriving by rail or truck, being unloaded and placed on pallets by workers, and then shipped out for distribution. The supply chain was held together by a combination of savvy logistics scheduling and brute labor. Today, there is less need for physical labor. Computers dominate. Barcodes on incoming supplies determine precise destinations which, in turn, are served by complicated conveyor operations. Often, the loading and unloading of shipments—this is sometimes referred to as “palletization” and “de-palletization”—is undertaken by robots.

“But that doesn’t mean a reduction in employment, at least in the long term,” Hibbard insisted. “What it means is that these companies create core jobs, at higher pay, and those jobs, unlike service jobs, exert a greater multiplier effect upon the economy at large.”

Myth-Busting and the EDC

Richard Chapman is president and CEO of the Kern EDC. He and Melinda Brown, Kern EDC’s director of business development, agree that much of their recruitment time involves dispelling misconceptions some businesses have about Kern County.

“Melinda has brought developers up here and, once they are here and see what we have and have their psychological preconceived notions debunked, Bakersfield begins to look great to them,” said Chapman. What myths? Bakersfield is too far away, all the way on the other side of the Grapevine (L.A. businesses often analyze distances in terms of L.A. drive time, which is significantly higher than Kern County drive times). The labor force is spread out too far and is unwilling to drive far to get to work (just the opposite, according to the Kern EDC, is borne out by its figures).

“The good news is that although the requirements are rising for skills on the job, wage levels are higher,” Chapman said. “You can train people up. The people we speak with in logistics, ag, and manufacturing are all telling us the same thing. We need people who understand computers, not people who can carry boxes.”

“We’re going to have higher-paying jobs and that’s what you want in this economy,” Brown said. “The downside is it’s going to take awhile to create these jobs. All industries are turning to technology and these new automated operations will increase volume and increased volume will mean a need for more workers. We’ve got to make sure that our workforce is ready, on the basics and in terms of these new technologies.

“If we would take more of our funds and train our students for these new technologies, we would achieve much higher levels of employment,” Brown insisted. “We’ve got to get our workforce training up to speed.”

The Windshield View

In Barry Hibbard’s view, Kern County has two fundamental advantages which equip it for fabulous growth ahead. First, he argued, are the ports of Long Beach and L.A.

“The commerce passing through those ports dwarfs other areas of the country,” he said. “That’s a billion dollar a day engine that will only get bigger. We’re perfectly positioned on the I-5 corridor to service that engine.”

Second, he asked rhetorically, who has the land we do? What we lack, according to Hibbard, is a comprehensive plan to assure that Kern County’s labor force is equipped and ready.

How can we make the good thing happen (create solid well-paying jobs) and who is responsible for making sure that the opportunity doesn’t slip away? Private employers? Educators? Government?

“All of the components are here to make this happen,” said Hibbard, “but it’s not clear to me that there is any one group that can make it happen alone. You’ve got a great bunch of people over there at the Kern EDC. They get it. Economic success requires a strong public-private coalition. You have the Career Services Center, our schools and universities, private industry, and some visionary people on the Board of Supervisors and the CAO’s office. But, to tell the truth, I don’t think bureaucrats can do it. In the very nature of things, most politicians look in the rearview mirror. You need to look through the windshield.”

Three guys walk into a bar: a lobbyist, a politician, and a robot. The bartender asks the lobbyist what he wants to drink. “One bottle of your best whiskey for the three of us and it’s on me,” says the lobbyist. He asks the same question of the politician. “Two bottles of your best whiskey,” the politician responds, “and the lobbyist is paying for all three!” Finally the barkeep poses the same question to the robot.

“Nothing, thank you, sir,” the robot says. “You see, I’m working tomorrow and it looks like I’ll be handling three jobs.”

Losing a few politicians and lobbyists hardly makes a tragedy. Losing a generation of American workers might bring an apocalypse. According to Hibbard, Brown, Chapman, and others, it need not be so. All we have to do is make sure that we prepare well to be the masters of automation and not its slaves. The human, not the dog.

Embrace your robot. Then make him beg, lie down, and rollover.

Things you may not have known about Kern’s economy:

Ranked #1 lowest vacancy rate (suburban Bakersfield market) nationwide. –Collier’s International, 4th Quarter 2010

Ranked #2 (out of 100) metro markets for private sector job growth during last decade. –Bureau of Labor Statistics 2010

Ranked #1 metro area in U.S. (out of top 100) for manufacturing job growth during last decade. –Business First, 2010

Ranked #1 metro area in U.S. (out of top 100) for real GDP growth 2001-2009. –Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2011

Article appeared in our 28-4 Issue - October 2011